The current European Parliament (2019-2024) is coming back to work after its last summer recess, in view of a very busy autumn into the Brussels bubble. With the official date of the last plenary session now set for 22-25 April 2024, the final countdown before the 2024 elections, which will bring forward a brand-new European Parliament, has officially begun.
Summer developments
The two major European political parties, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), show two different trends according to the July polls. The EPP continues to lose another 4 seats compared to earlier polls, bringing it down to 157 seats, and S&D recovers a bit, to 143 seats. The race for third place goes on as the liberal Renew Europe group recovered from its record low projection, to 90 seats, just 8 seats ahead of the expected size of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) which are currently polling at 82 seats.
Looking at the left side of the political spectrum, the Greens are expected to win 49 seats, with the Left losing compared to earlier projections and moving towards 45 seats.
Current polls are based on a 705 seats European Parliament composition. However, this is expected to change for the next mandate as Ministers decided in July to increase the number of seats to 720 MEPs. Three Member States (Spain, France, and the Netherlands) will gain two seats each. Nine others (Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Latvia, Austria, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Finland) are to be awarded one additional seat each, while leaving the number of seats of the remaining 15 Member States unchanged.
Autumn of opportunities
European political parties are slowly preparing their European electoral programmes or manifestoes. While these manifestos may not carry the same relevance as national programmes, they provide an opportunity to work with them. On top of ensuring that national programmes are aligned with your agenda, now is also time to engage with MEPs to find new allies, both amongst potential newcomers as well as the ones running for re-election.
Lastly, let’s not forget about the last legislative stretch. With the last legislative proposal set to be delivered by the autumn of this year, the last Plenary to take place in the week 22 April 2024, and many still ongoing negotiations, European institutions will aim to close as many files as possible ahead of the new term.
Our full election analysis and opportunities paper is available here. If you would like to discuss how we can help you navigate the next EU Commission and Parliament mandate, please get in touch through the contact form.