Welcome to Better Europe’s weekly update on EU Affairs.
FROM THE BEACH TO THE BERLAYMONT
It must have been a busy summer at the Commission’s Berlaymont HQ. While you were at the beach, decisions on key strategic documents should have been finalised in Brussels. Until now, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been keeping her cards close to her chest, but policy documents such as the DG’s Strategic Plans 2025-2029, and the second EU budget package will soon be overdue. The State of the Union speech in Strasbourg on 10 September should also give a glimpse of what will be in the Commission’s Work Programme for 2026, ahead of the full document expected in October. Will we see another dozen of omnibuses next year, or will the EU return to its “normal” evidence-based way of preparing legislation, ensuring legislative proposals are properly planned and consulted on? And will major laws such as the EU Deforestation Regulation and the Empowering Consumers Directive be opened up even before their application? Will the Commission use the “kill list” to withdraw proposals that it now deems obsolete for geopolitical reasons, such as the Green Claims Directive? A few more weeks, which seems to be an eternity in politics today.
TURBULENT NATIONAL POLITICS AHEAD
Europe is bracing for a stormy autumn at the national level as well, as elections and political upheavals challenge the continent’s traditional parties and coalitions. In Germany, state elections in eight federal states in 2026 are expected to result in fragmented parliaments. Polls suggest that the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Left party (Die Linke) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) could dominate in several regions. Forming a government without the far-right party may become mathematically impossible, which highlights its growing on coalition negotiations. In other news, Lithuania appointed social democrat Inga Ruginiene as Prime Minister after her predecessor resigned after a financial scandal. Her coalition, which includes populist and minority parties, has already sparked protests due to the inclusion of individuals who opposed Ukraine-related sanctions and criticized Covid restrictions. Despite the controversy, President Gitanas Nausėda has expressed cautious support. France’s PM has no such luck: François Bayrou faces an existential threat as he submits his government to a confidence vote on 8 September. With a deeply divided National Assembly, securing a majority seems unlikely. If Bayrou falls, France risks another leadership vacuum. From Berlin to Vilnius to Paris, Europe’s political landscape is in flux, guaranteeing a turbulent “rentrée”!
EUROPE TRADES AWAY SUSTAINABILITY LAWS
So it seems U.S. firms have a problem with Europe’s sustainability reporting and due diligence legislation. Or at least, that is what the communiqué following the July trade deal between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump seems to confirm, in a revival of the failed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership as civil society campaigners see it. As with the commitment to purchase impossible amounts of fossil fuels, it turns out the Commission has also made impossible promises on the Omnibus I package on corporate sustainability, which is not even in its hands anymore. Instead, Parliament and Member States are now expected to ensure the rules “do not pose undue restrictions on transatlantic trade”. Similar promises were made on the EU Deforestation Regulation, an initiative that is not under political review yet but scheduled for (delayed) implementation at the end of this year. Von der Leyen proudly announced that her deal had prevented a trade war that “would have been celebrated only in Moscow and Beijing”, a comment followed by sharp criticism from Mario Draghi at the annual Rimini Meeting, a Catholic festival at the heart of Italian politics. The former ECB President and former Italian Prime Minister accused the EU of openly yielding to U.S. demands while eroding its credibility on the global stage. Unsurprisingly, some suggest that it is time for Draghi to replace von der Leyen, although such a queen sacrifice would only come into play after a few more contested trade deals and badly evidenced omnibus proposals.