Welcome to Better Europe’s weekly update on EU Affairs.
EU SUMMIT: SHOW US THE MONEY
We said it last week and even Politico agreed: Trump stole the Summit. Just read this op-ed by Enrico Letta, the eloquent social-democrat former Prime Minister of Italy now hiding in academics and at the prestigious Jacques Delors think tank. His brilliant report, Much More Than a Market, is long forgotten, as EU leaders have selectively interpreted the recommendations he and his colleague Mario Draghi made two years ago. Yes, we have a 28th regime proposal, captured by the U.S. venture capital-backed “EU-INC” campaign and published in the nick of time a day ahead of the EU Summit. In classic Brussels strategic thinking, it could fly as no one is really happy with it: it doesn’t go far enough for the baseball boys who feel like they are stuck at first base, while trade unions and NGOs rightfully warn that allowing full-time “telework” from one Member State into another is a recipe for social dumping, aka Bolkenstein 2.0. But let’s get back to the Summit — what did actually get decided? As always, the Council Conclusions carefully crafted beforehand by Member State diplomats, “on Ukraine, the Middle East, competitiveness and single market, European defence and security, migration, multilateralism and other items”.
…AND BRING THE POPCORN PLEASE
Yes, there are always elections somewhere in Europe. But this month is prime time for Europe’s political junkies, with a few German regional elections just over and five countries heading to the polls in the space of a bit more than a week. In France, the second round of local elections next Sunday could confirm that President Macron might end up handing over the keys of the Elysée to the Front National in the presidential elections next year. Together with Slovenia, where a national election on Sunday is expected to send the country off to a much more conservative course, this week doesn’t look pretty for progressive Europeans. The Netherlands doesn’t provide more clarity on the direction of travel: local elections earlier this week were not the first litmus test for the new Dutch liberal D66-led government that they could have been, as citizens mostly voted for, well, local parties. Don’t forget Italy’s constitutional referendum, which could strengthen opposition parties against Meloni. And then there is Denmark, where social-democrat dark horse Mette Frederiksen might have had her last Council this week, unless liberal coalition partner Moderaterne does well and her other opponent, EPP-affiliated challenger Alex Vanopslagh fails to recover from scandals on… cocaine use in office. We’ll just take the popcorn!
AN EU BUDGET ON A BUDGET
Financing Ukraine is one thing. But other money topics are also on the menu for member states: the next EU budget. While there are almost two years left in the current seven-year budget cycle, the planning is to have an agreement by the end of this year, which means negotiations should really accelerate towards the summer. General Affairs ministers on Tuesday put the Parliament in check, with a statement from Sweden, Finland, Belgium and the Netherlands announcing their disagreement with the proposed increase of the EU budget to 2 billion euros or 1.26% of GDP (up from 1.1%). With Germany and France on the same line, the confrontation with the Parliament, who are aiming for 2.2 billion euros, will be ugly. The Commission meanwhile keeps dreaming of its own resources – the Plastic Packaging Waste tax, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the Digital Services tax, and yes, even the Financial Transaction Tax. But none of these will fully reimburse the Recovery and Resilience Facility, meaning choices will have to be made if Member States are not willing to cough up the deficit. Eurobonds, anyone?